Ukrainian Blood: More than Just Sacrifice; For Putin, It's the Writing on the Wall

The events of the past 48 hours in Ukraine mirror that of a movie ending. While it is important to remember that this is real life, and real people died horribly fighting a tyrant who was clearly contemptuous of human life, the rapidity of events and sudden reversal of fortunes must be noted. And more importantly, so should the effect that these events will have – probably this summer – on a certain, fraudulently elected Russian strongman and aspiring dictator.

Let’s have a short (biased) review that will undoubtedly do Ukraine’s recent

Putin: Witness Your Future

history an injustice. (Former?) Ukrainian president, Viktor Yanukovych was elected under questionable circumstances. After this election he quickly had the leader of the opposition arrested and convicted of corruption amongst other charges, even as he built a complex of palaces around his nation, some of which have been discovered to have small zoos and wholesale replicas of Greek ruins. Then Yanukovych began the process of selling out his nation to Russian President Vladimir Putin by signing a series of political and economic agreements with the so-called “Russian Federation.” And it’s no secret that he did this though much of his nation favored a more independent and Western-leaning Ukraine, while Putin is clearly trying to reconstitute the Russian empire through a new regional pact.

When protesters showed up a few months ago and began to seize parts of the capital, Kiev, things really got out of control. Riot police were called out. At first, protesters clashed with police, resulting in some deaths and several injuries. Then through the anti-tyrannical magic of social media, thousands transformed into tens of thousands, then hundreds of thousands, then millions. A week ago, apparently, whether acting on the “advice” of his good neighbor Putin or on his own volition, the Ukrainian president had had enough. He ordered the police to stop enforcing the law, and to start executing protesters from snipers’ nests positioned in the central core of his capital city. If the protesters weren’t going to understand orders, they would understand bullets. Stalin did it in Ukraine in the 1930’s. Mao did it in China in the 50’s and 60’s. The Chinese Communist Party leaders did it in Beijing in June of ’89. So he gave the order. Shoot, and shoot to kill.

But it didn’t work. This time, things were different. The problem is that this isn’t 1935, or 1966, or 1989. This is not a world where, aside from North Korea, a ruler can simply act out without consequence and start randomly killing his or her citizens in broad daylight. Not if such a leader wants to remain part of the larger global economic and political order. Not in the age of the Internet, of YouTube, of Facebook, Twitter, of global flows of capital and information. No, this is not the 20^th century at all. This is the Age of Connectedness. This is a time where, regardless of how strongly your supporters back you, your supporters still want to live and prosper in comfort in this information-soaked world. This is an age where, if you start killing people, everyone sees it, comments on it, blogs on it, posts it, from Kiev to Katmandu to Kansas City. This is an age, at least from the point of view of tyrants and would-be tyrants, of strict and instant responsibility.

And it is because of this rising tide of massive and instant communication and information that the (Former) President of Ukraine is driving aimlessly around his furious country, at this very moment, with less than a dozen armed supporters. Perhaps he hopes he can sneak into Russia. Perhaps he hopes that Putin will order some kind of invasion to reinstall him, but that’s unlikely. The Cold War is over, and Putin knows that if he acts to do that, the entire world will condemn him, or more terrifyingly, stop buying Russian natural gas. Putin’s Russia is no Soviet Union. It is a dictatorship set atop a fragile nation-state. It is a cumbersome political machine lubricated by ready cash, period. No cash, no supporters, no power.  

Yes, as revelers celebrate their victory in Kiev’s central square this evening, Putin and his inner circle must be feeling really scared. Perhaps scared is not the world: terrified. The mini-Putin in Kiev just played his last card and, though future events in Ukraine are hard to guess at, they probably will not include him except for making some room in a prison cell. Putin and Yanukovych may call this a coup, but any Russian and Ukrainian and American would tell you that when a democratically elected, multiparty national legislature unanimously votes to remove a murderous executive from office, it’s not a coup. It’s good democratic governance.

Last year Moscow saw some huge demonstrations against Putin’s rule. The Russian President knows now that, judging from recent events in Ukraine, the endgame from a similar event would be, well, similar. Additionally, Russians are acutely aware of their shrinking population and demographic crisis. To open fire on the nation’s best and brightest on, say, a July 2014 day would amount to genocidal charges from his own people, and would mean an end to Putin and his sham government.   

Putin, the blood of Ukranians is more than just a sacrifice for freedom. It’s the writing on your wall. Get out now.